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Doon Exile wrote: ↑Sun Mar 09, 2025 10:13 pm One win (or 2 draws) out of the last 2 games will guarantee promotion. Anything less than that will mean we’re relying on other results.

Beat Kildare next Sunday and all pressure is off going to last game

Anonymous1 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 10, 2025 1:36 am

Doon Exile wrote: ↑Sun Mar 09, 2025 10:13 pm One win (or 2 draws) out of the last 2 games will guarantee promotion. Anything less than that will mean we’re relying on other results.

Beat Kildare next Sunday and all pressure is off going to last game

One win doesn’t necessarily guarantee promotion.

Kildare can still reach 12 points as can Offaly.

But both Clare and Laois can reach 10.

There’s a possibility that Kildare, Offaly and one of Laois/Clare all finish on 10 points as the latter two play each other.

In that instance, score difference would determine our fate.

Cheddar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 10, 2025 9:07 am Score difference is definitely relevant but we do have a big advantage ahead of Laois and Clare in that regard.

Essentially if we beat Kildare, we are there because we’d then have them on a head-to-head. Let’s imagine Clare or Laois win their game, they’d be on 8. If it’s Clare, they have a head-to-head vs Kildare. If it’s Laois, we have a head-to-head on them so we’d still be in the top 2 even if we lost to Clare on the final day.

If we lose to Kildare, and beat Clare. And let’s say Laois beat Clare at the weekend, Laois beat Fermanagh, we’d have 10 points with Laois, but win on head-to-head.

Only scenario we don’t get promoted with any kind of win is that Clare/Laois overturn a 16 and 19 point differential, which I struggle to see.

Again, any kind of win in the last 2 games means Fermanagh can’t get to us.

If we win on Sunday and Laois and Clare is a draw, we are promoted.

Bord na Mona man wrote: ↑Mon Mar 10, 2025 6:15 pm Just to add, the ideal result for the Leix vs Clare match in Maryborough on Saturday evening is a draw.
If that happens, then it sets it that any win in Offaly's last two games will promote Offaly.

Gatorade showers for Declan Kelly and Mickey Harte...

Lone Shark wrote: ↑Tue Mar 11, 2025 8:56 am

Bord na Mona man wrote: ↑Mon Mar 10, 2025 6:15 pm Just to add, the ideal result for the Leix vs Clare match in Maryborough on Saturday evening is a draw.
If that happens, then it sets it that any win in Offaly's last two games will promote Offaly.

Gatorade showers for Declan Kelly and Mickey Harte...

Notwithstanding the whole thing about Offaly probably needing to be good enough to beat Clare or Kildare on merit to have any business going up to Division Two, I'd say myself the ideal result on Saturday night- from a promotion perspective - is a Leix win. If we assume that Fermanagh beat Leitrim (not unreasonable) then Clare will be dead in the water for the final round game, since either Laois or Fermanagh will be guaranteed to finish on either 9 or 10 points, out of their reach.

So Offaly could go up even after losing to Kildare, as long as we beat a Clare team who have nothing to play for.

I take the point that this depends on Kildare not losing to Antrim which brings scoring difference into play, but whatever doubts there are about Kildare in a tight finish against a team with a bit of grit about them, there are no doubts about their ability to run up a score and look flashy against a weaker opponent. Add in a home crowd and a determination to keep building up the energy around the place in advance of a home Leinster championship quarter final in a few weeks, and I'd be confident they'll put Antrim to the sword.