General Election 2024 - Offaly Constituency

[faithfulfanatic]

Not sure if this thread is appropriate for here, so Admins please remove if so.
I have no overbearing political opinions, so not going to force anything down anyone’s throat, just trying to get an idea of what way people will be voting and who we might expect to be elected.
Not sure if anyone knows of any other forum where this would be discussed/polled?

List of candidates taken from offaly express article and in alphabetical order.
I note Keishia Taylor has a Dublin address, does anyone know if she is originally from Offaly or if there is any connection? I can’t imagine PBP will garner too many votes here.
If I was to make a stab at it, I’d say we will elect Tony McCormack, John Clendennen and Carol Nolan.

I was surprised that FF didn’t run Peter Ormond of Shinrone. I think Murray and McCormack are too close geographically for both to be elected.
The Kinnitty/Cadamstown area could have 2 TDs.
Carol Nolan could take a lot of the SF votes from Aoife Masterson.
Pippa wasn’t elected as a TD before and I don’t expect GP to do too well at all.

I’ve given the option for everyone to pick 3 candidates, to try reflect the voting system (although I know this isn’t perfect).

[SearingDrive]

This a topical issue, not a sporting issue, but with winners and losers. My view is the breakdown of seats will be, 1 each for FF and FG, with Carol Nolan taking the third seat. Pippa Hackett will not be elected, and the PBP candidate will come up well short in the poll.
Tony NcCormack won the FF Convention, Claire Murray was added later for gender balance.

[frankthetank]

My feelings are that Carol Nolan (IND) will top the poll.

Tony McCormack (FF) will come 2nd and the restructuring of the boundaries means John Clendennen (FG) really should get in. If he doesn’t it would be a big blow to him and doubtful we’d see him on the campaign trail again.

[Anonymous1]

On current polling there’s only one outcome here and that’s 1 FF - Tony McCormack, 1 FG - John Clendennen and 1 IND - Carol Nolan.

I think Tony McCormack will top the poll and take the first seat (with his running mate Claire Murray’s transfers putting him over the top) not because he’s a particularly strong candidate but because FF’s strongest electoral area in the country is Tullamore where they won 4/7 seats in June so even without a Cowen on the ballot he should be home and hosed.

If FG maintain their current position in the polls then I can see John Clendennen polling in 2nd after the first count with Carol Nolan in 3rd with a bit of gap back to the rest of the field and it’s difficult at this point to see how any of the other contenders could gazump them.

Voters in the Birr electoral area voted in higher numbers than the Tullamore or Edenderry areas in 2020 and the Edenderry vote is split four ways which opens up the possibility of the Birr area having 2 TD’s and Edenderry having none.

Clendennen will benefit hugely from Peter Ormond not being on the ballot and likewise Nolan will benefit hugely from John Leahy not being on the ballot.

Despite my belief that Clendennen will poll better than Nolan on the first count, I think she takes the second seat and he the third as she’ll receive a chunk of transfers from whichever of Aoife Masterson or Eddie Fitzpatrick is eliminated first, I think Masterson.

Both could then be elected without reaching the quota when Fitzpatrick is eliminated as there would only be 2 candidates remaining for 2 seats.

In fairness to McCormack, Clendennen and Nolan, they’ve probably ran the strongest campaigns so aren’t leaving it to chance.

I think Masterson of SF will be 4th on the first count, she doesn’t have any name recognition in Birr or Edenderry, Nolan will take a chunk of the anti-establishment vote that she would’ve otherwise scooped and she’ll struggle enormously with transfers given there are essentially no other “left wing” candidates in the field.

However, if there’s a late surge for SF like there was in 2020 she could be in contention but that seems unlikely at this stage.

If there’s to be a bolter from the pack then it’s likely to be Eddie Fitzpatrick. I reckon he’ll be 5th after the first count however there are three other Edenderry candidates in the field and if he can coalesce enough of their transfers (particularly Claire Murray and Fergus McDonnell’s) then he has a chance but it’s a tall order given he’s not particularly close to either of those candidates geographically.

I think Claire Murray will be 6th after the first count. Fianna Fáil made a real mess here with their second candidate, Eddie Fitzpatrick and Peter Ormond contested the selection convention yet both were overlooked in the name of gender quotas despite FF being above the 40% threshold anyway. It was a tough ask for FF to win a second seat here regardless but they completely shot themselves in the foot as it was inevitable one of them would stand as an independent.

The other five are non-runners as far as I’m concerned in that neither will seriously threaten.

McDonnell will probably poll the best of them followed by Hackett and the bottom three - Boylan, Ward and Taylor won’t hit quadruple figures.

I believe it’s wrong that Taylor can even stand in this constituency given she’s not from Offaly and doesn’t appear to have any connection or seem to have mounted any campaign at all. It’s simply a ploy by PBP to increase their FPV as 2% of the national vote is required for a party to receive state funding.

The latter reason is also why Aontú are standing a candidate here.

TLDR McCormack, Clendennen and Nolan to be elected unless Sinn Féin have a polling surge nationally or Fitzpatrick can cobble together enough transfers in Edenderry.

[Superhans75]

Not in anyway political but just been reading books about the Great famine of 1933 in Ukraine and elsewhere in the USSR
About the forced Russification (modernization) of agriculture and loss of
Rural life .
And forced movement of people into certain
Area's. And chaos it caused.
For one minute I thought they were writing the script for modern Western Europe governments.( With obesity epidemic instead of starvation)
Which ever way you vote
Remember vote for your grandkids future
Not your own .
Good luck

[bracknaghboy]

Carol Nolan is the only one in the Dail who is actually doing the job she was elected and paid by us to do.....representing the people of Offaly and the people of Ireland first and foremost.
The political parties up there exist only to destroy the country socially, culturally and economically.....I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. To think that people will go into a polling booth tomorrow week and re-elect the same government or some minor variation of them is kind of mind boggling to me anyway with everything that's going on in the country right now.

[Anonymous1]

Carol Nolan is the only one in the Dail who is actually doing the job she was elected and paid by us to do.....representing the people of Offaly and the people of Ireland first and foremost.
The political parties up there exist only to destroy the country socially, culturally and economically.....I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. To think that people will go into a polling booth tomorrow week and re-elect the same government or some minor variation of them is kind of mind boggling to me anyway with everything that's going on in the country right now.

She certainly doesn’t represent the majority of us in this county given we voted 58% in favour of repealing the 8th amendment.

And most certainly doesn’t represent the majority of people in Ireland who voted 66% in favour.

It’s all well and good howling at the moon from the opposition benches.

We’ve enough hurlers on the ditch up there, protecting their own seats by never having to take a difficult decision.

This country has been utterly transformed for the better over the last 30 years.

We were the poorest country in Europe up until the 90s, we’re now one of the wealthiest in the world.

Have we got our challenges? Yes, but point out the countries that don’t?

The reality is Ireland is one of the best countries in the world to live in across a whole host of metrics from quality of life to safety to life expectancy.

I’d love to know who you think could do a better job governing?

By the sounds of it you’d like to see the likes of Healy Rae’s and Mattie McGrath ruling the roost?

God help us all if that ever came to pass.

Thankfully it seems the people of Ireland have looked around the world at the basket cases of the US and the UK and decided you know what? The centre has served us well so why rock the boat?

[bracknaghboy]

This country has been utterly transformed for the better over the last 30 years.
We were the poorest country in Europe up until the 90s, we’re now one of the wealthiest in the world.

It is wealthy alright for the likes of Banty McEnaney and the hundreds of others that are milking the country dry with government "accomodation" deals.
It doesn't feel so wealthy to the working couple in their late 20's still living at home with their parents with practically no prospect of renting a home let alone ever owning one. If that's your measure of "wealth" then you can keep it.

You ask who could govern better? Well the simple answer would be a bunch a bunch of blindfolded hamsters but that would suggest the gangsters running the show are stupid or don't know what they doing......in fact they know well what they are doing and they are hell-bent on finishing off every small community in the country.

[Anonymous1]

This country has been utterly transformed for the better over the last 30 years.
We were the poorest country in Europe up until the 90s, we’re now one of the wealthiest in the world.

It is wealthy alright for the likes of Banty McEnaney and the hundreds of others that are milking the country dry with government "accomodation" deals.
It doesn't feel so wealthy to the working couple in their late 20's still living at home with their parents with practically no prospect of renting a home let alone ever owning one. If that's your measure of "wealth" then you can keep it.

You ask who could govern better? Well the simple answer would be a bunch a bunch of blindfolded hamsters but that would suggest the gangsters running the show are stupid or don't know what they doing......in fact they know well what they are doing and they are hell-bent on finishing off every small community in the country.

Let’s draw this out to it’s illogical conclusion.

You honestly believe politicians are deliberately trying to destroy the country?

What would be their motivation for doing so? How many people are involved in this sinister plot? Are the majority of voters in the country totally blind to this attempt to destroy them? And if this was their intention then aren’t they doing a terrible job of it given Ireland regularly ranks in the top ten in the world in all metrics from quality of life to life expectancy to standard of living?

[Lone Shark]

Carol Nolan is the only one in the Dail who is actually doing the job she was elected and paid by us to do.....representing the people of Offaly and the people of Ireland first and foremost.
The political parties up there exist only to destroy the country socially, culturally and economically.....I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. To think that people will go into a polling booth tomorrow week and re-elect the same government or some minor variation of them is kind of mind boggling to me anyway with everything that's going on in the country right now.

I'm not going to get into Carol's personal record, in part because when you're living outside the county, it's not as easy to follow these things. However I will say this about ALL independents, and also about those smaller political parties where their intentions after the election are not clear. It should be a fundamental thing that you go on the record and say where you stand on the overall political spectrum, so the voter has an idea what potential government they're supporting by casting a vote in your favour.

For the first time ever, I would say, the Irish people have pretty clear choice between a continuation of the current centre right government and a coalition of the left. Now I am not going to advocate for one of those two things on here (I have my own views, that's not what this is about) and neither am I going to say that it is better or worse that it's a very different type of choice to what historically presented itself at the voting booth in Ireland, but it is. The two options presenting themselves are materially different, and that was never something that you could say for years when you were effectively choosing between FF-led and FG-led governments.

With Carol Nolan (and also Fergus McDonnell and Eddie Fitzpatrick), if they get returned to the Dáil, they might be willing to support one of those Centre Right vs Left options, they might be willing to support both depending on what they get for doing so, they might be willing to support neither because being in opposition is a hell of a lot easier, politically. And right now, as voters, we don't know that, and to me that's a problem. It's all very well to say that Carol, or Fergus, or Eddie, are X, Y or Z as a person, but the biggest fundamental thing that will make a difference to people's lives is who is the identity of who sits in the Taoiseach's office, and who gets the big ministerial gigs. And in that regard, a vote for any of those three is a vote for a "mystery box" when it comes to that question.

Now I take the point that as ex-SF, then people might argue that of course she'd support her old party, but unlike the longstanding tradition we have in this country of "gene pool" politicians, such as Eddie Fitzpatrick here, Carol's policy positions and statements have been a long way removed from those of Sinn Féin, so I don't think it's easy to predict at all who she would vote for as Taoiseach. Or, as was mentioned in a different post above, if she has any interest at all in supporting a government and having to toe the line in exchange for defending decisions, instead of railing against things all the time.

Again I will stress - while I personally think that the politics of permanent opposition is pointless and self-serving, you're entitled to vote for it. Here in Roscommon, we have Mick Fitzmaurice who has said to me personally before that he much prefers to - in his own words - "hold people to account" rather than go down the Boxer Moran route of trying to squeeze out personal and local gains in exchange for his support. I don't see the point in that, but he's not behind the door about it. Although I should add here, my conversation with him predates the formation of the Independent Ireland Party.

I consider it similar to SF's abstentionist policy when it comes to Westminster. Some people say it's giving their voters no voice, I would always argue that when it's laid out in advance of a vote what they plan to do and the people vote for them anyway, then they're doing exactly what they promised, and I consider that a very fair position to hold.

Carol - and some others as well - have given voters no idea what they're voting for, and I would struggle to look past that.


Just FYI, before I clicked "submit" on this post, I looked up her website, to see if I was doing her a dis-service.

I absolutely am not. She claims to represent the "silent majority", but gives no indication as to who those people are. Am I in it? Am I not? I dunno. Also, she has a newsletter on there, five articles on it, all five are complaining about something. There are six categories in her "priorities" section, all of which are saying that things are terrible, and she will work tirelessly to make it all better. There is not one policy or practical solution to be found anywhere on there. If I vote for her to "fix" the housing situation, does she believe in the FF/FG approach of keeping prices high through subsidies and buyer supports, or the SF position that prices are too high, and need to come down, and that taking on the vulture funds is the better way to do that? Who knows.

[FJB]

Nolan will take a chunk of the anti-establishment vote that she would’ve otherwise scooped and she’ll struggle enormously with transfers given there are essentially no other “left wing” candidates in the field.

Bit of a stretch to describe Ms Nolan as "left wing"?

[Anonymous1]

Nolan will take a chunk of the anti-establishment vote that she would’ve otherwise scooped and she’ll struggle enormously with transfers given there are essentially no other “left wing” candidates in the field.

Bit of a stretch to describe Ms Nolan as "left wing"?

I think you’ve misread that.

I was referring to Masterson.

[Anonymous1]

Carol Nolan is the only one in the Dail who is actually doing the job she was elected and paid by us to do.....representing the people of Offaly and the people of Ireland first and foremost.
The political parties up there exist only to destroy the country socially, culturally and economically.....I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. To think that people will go into a polling booth tomorrow week and re-elect the same government or some minor variation of them is kind of mind boggling to me anyway with everything that's going on in the country right now.

I'm not going to get into Carol's personal record, in part because when you're living outside the county, it's not as easy to follow these things. However I will say this about ALL independents, and also about those smaller political parties where their intentions after the election are not clear. It should be a fundamental thing that you go on the record and say where you stand on the overall political spectrum, so the voter has an idea what potential government they're supporting by casting a vote in your favour.

For the first time ever, I would say, the Irish people have pretty clear choice between a continuation of the current centre right government and a coalition of the left. Now I am not going to advocate for one of those two things on here (I have my own views, that's not what this is about) and neither am I going to say that it is better or worse that it's a very different type of choice to what historically presented itself at the voting booth in Ireland, but it is. The two options presenting themselves are materially different, and that was never something that you could say for years when you were effectively choosing between FF-led and FG-led governments.

With Carol Nolan (and also Fergus McDonnell and Eddie Fitzpatrick), if they get returned to the Dáil, they might be willing to support one of those Centre Right vs Left options, they might be willing to support both depending on what they get for doing so, they might be willing to support neither because being in opposition is a hell of a lot easier, politically. And right now, as voters, we don't know that, and to me that's a problem. It's all very well to say that Carol, or Fergus, or Eddie, are X, Y or Z as a person, but the biggest fundamental thing that will make a difference to people's lives is who is the identity of who sits in the Taoiseach's office, and who gets the big ministerial gigs. And in that regard, a vote for any of those three is a vote for a "mystery box" when it comes to that question.

Now I take the point that as ex-SF, then people might argue that of course she'd support her old party, but unlike the longstanding tradition we have in this country of "gene pool" politicians, such as Eddie Fitzpatrick here, Carol's policy positions and statements have been a long way removed from those of Sinn Féin, so I don't think it's easy to predict at all who she would vote for as Taoiseach. Or, as was mentioned in a different post above, if she has any interest at all in supporting a government and having to toe the line in exchange for defending decisions, instead of railing against things all the time.

Again I will stress - while I personally think that the politics of permanent opposition is pointless and self-serving, you're entitled to vote for it. Here in Roscommon, we have Mick Fitzmaurice who has said to me personally before that he much prefers to - in his own words - "hold people to account" rather than go down the Boxer Moran route of trying to squeeze out personal and local gains in exchange for his support. I don't see the point in that, but he's not behind the door about it. Although I should add here, my conversation with him predates the formation of the Independent Ireland Party.

I consider it similar to SF's abstentionist policy when it comes to Westminster. Some people say it's giving their voters no voice, I would always argue that when it's laid out in advance of a vote what they plan to do and the people vote for them anyway, then they're doing exactly what they promised, and I consider that a very fair position to hold.

Carol - and some others as well - have given voters no idea what they're voting for, and I would struggle to look past that.


Just FYI, before I clicked "submit" on this post, I looked up her website, to see if I was doing her a dis-service.

I absolutely am not. She claims to represent the "silent majority", but gives no indication as to who those people are. Am I in it? Am I not? I dunno. Also, she has a newsletter on there, five articles on it, all five are complaining about something. There are six categories in her "priorities" section, all of which are saying that things are terrible, and she will work tirelessly to make it all better. There is not one policy or practical solution to be found anywhere on there. If I vote for her to "fix" the housing situation, does she believe in the FF/FG approach of keeping prices high through subsidies and buyer supports, or the SF position that prices are too high, and need to come down, and that taking on the vulture funds is the better way to do that? Who knows.

Excellent post LS and I agree with the sentiment expressed.

But I would make two points;

1. The idea that a left wing government without one of FF or FG can be formed is a fairytale.

Even in the event there was some Lazarus like surge for parties of the left in the last week of the campaign and they somehow won a majority of Dáil seats - given the results of the Local Elections, it would be mathematically impossible for a theoretical left-wing government to hold a majority of seats in the Seanad.

The reality is FF/FG combined will win somewhere in the ballpark of 80 seats and the question will be who the third wheel is, if any.

Maybe you could argue that the electorate has a choice of a SF-FF government instead of a FF-FG one but that’s a hard sell when FF have ruled SF out and SF’s entire campaign is centred on “ending 100 years of FF/FG rule”

2. Today’s Offaly Independent (which I’m sure you’ve heard of) carries an interview with Carol Nolan but it confirms to me exactly what you say because after reading it I still have no idea where she stands on for example state intervention in the housing market or who she’d enter government with etc.

It’s all deliberately vague in a bid not to lose anti-establishment votes which she draws from across the political spectrum.

The interview hasn’t yet been posted online but when it is I’ll edit this post to include a link but for now I’ve included a picture.

[Lone Shark]

1. The idea that a left wing government without one of FF or FG can be formed is a fairytale.

Even in the event there was some Lazarus like surge for parties of the left in the last week of the campaign and they somehow won a majority of Dáil seats - given the results of the Local Elections, it would be mathematically impossible for a theoretical left-wing government to hold a majority of seats in the Seanad.

The reality is FF/FG combined will win somewhere in the ballpark of 80 seats and the question will be who the third wheel is, if any.

Solid response. If only actual political debates were as constructive!

But just on the point above - I wholeheartedly accept the point that for the combined left to get to 87 seats, or close enough to it that they can govern with the support of a few like-minded independents, is not easy.

However while I have my own strong views on political stuff, I absolutely abhor the modern political reality - admittedly a product of two-party systems - where actual principles and beliefs mean nothing, it's only about what gets you elected. So when you go to the ballot box, your choice (in America) is either Donald Trump, or a gun-carrying, genocide-enabling, Cheney-family-loving, corporate centre-right alternative.

In the UK, it was a continuation of Tory rule, or Keir Starmer, who is a Tory wearing a red tie.

When actual alternatives emerge (Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn) the system quickly springs into action to ensure that they're crushed before they get the chance to have any influence.


Which is a roundabout way of saying that I think politics is better if people stand for something that they believe in, and if the electorate votes for those beliefs, as opposed to the idea that politicians should try and find the sweet spot where they will appeal to everyone (or displease as few people as possible, more accurately) and that voters should think about the likely outcome, rather than what they want in a politician.


Just to be clear, that's not me saying you're wrong - far from it. The betting for the next Taoiseach is 8/11 Harris, 5/4 Martin, 7/1 McDonald, that speaks volumes.

[Anonymous1]

1. The idea that a left wing government without one of FF or FG can be formed is a fairytale.

Even in the event there was some Lazarus like surge for parties of the left in the last week of the campaign and they somehow won a majority of Dáil seats - given the results of the Local Elections, it would be mathematically impossible for a theoretical left-wing government to hold a majority of seats in the Seanad.

The reality is FF/FG combined will win somewhere in the ballpark of 80 seats and the question will be who the third wheel is, if any.

Solid response. If only actual political debates were as constructive!

But just on the point above - I wholeheartedly accept the point that for the combined left to get to 87 seats, or close enough to it that they can govern with the support of a few like-minded independents, is not easy.

However while I have my own strong views on political stuff, I absolutely abhor the modern political reality - admittedly a product of two-party systems - where actual principles and beliefs mean nothing, it's only about what gets you elected. So when you go to the ballot box, your choice (in America) is either Donald Trump, or a gun-carrying, genocide-enabling, Cheney-family-loving, corporate centre-right alternative.

In the UK, it was a continuation of Tory rule, or Keir Starmer, who is a Tory wearing a red tie.

When actual alternatives emerge (Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn) the system quickly springs into action to ensure that they're crushed before they get the chance to have any influence.


Which is a roundabout way of saying that I think politics is better if people stand for something that they believe in, and if the electorate votes for those beliefs, as opposed to the idea that politicians should try and find the sweet spot where they will appeal to everyone (or displease as few people as possible, more accurately) and that voters should think about the likely outcome, rather than what they want in a politician.


Just to be clear, that's not me saying you're wrong - far from it. The betting for the next Taoiseach is 8/11 Harris, 5/4 Martin, 7/1 McDonald, that speaks volumes.

To be fair to Donald Trump, he certainly stood on his principles and beliefs and won. Not that I nor most people outside the US can countenance why but that was the case.

In relation to Corbyn and Sanders, their supporters continue to blame their demise on the “system” but in both instances they went before the people on two occasions and lost both times, albeit Sanders went before a primary rather than a GE.

Corbyn and his supporters weren’t blaming the “system” in 2017 when he very nearly came to power. His position on Brexit in 2019 being “We’ll renegotiate the deal and hold a second referendum” cost him many more votes than anything the “system” could’ve ever dreamed of.

Sanders similarly spent 4 years blaming the “system” for his defeat to Clinton (among the members of his own party by the way) in 2016 yet when he gave it a second go in 2020 he fared even worse. He also blames the “system” for that too even though if it hadn’t been for Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden before the South Carolina primary, Sanders would’ve been the nominee. Again, nothing to do with the “system”.

Both men stood for what they believed in and they were both defeated, confirming that what they both believed in - namely some form of socialist society was not what voters wanted.

To bring this back to the original topic - if Kamala Harris is a gun-carrying, genocide-enabling, Cheney-family-loving, corporate centre-right alternative and Keir Starmer is a Tory wearing a red tie then Mary Lou McDonald is a blueshirt wearing a green dress?

Sinn Féin have moved so far towards the centre that their policies have become indistinguishable in almost every area from FF and FG’s and this day next week their core working class base are going to punish them for that by either staying at home or voting for independents.

Again, not the “system” but the people.