Offaly SFC 2009 - Odds available from Ladbrokes

[Lone Shark]

And before anyone asks, no, I don't still work there, but I did ask if it could be done and in fairness to the compiler he took it on and made a decent fist of it. In return for that (and perhaps laying a wee bet to myself! ) I agreed to pitch it on here and then if lads want to get stuck in, or better yet, put it around to their clubmates so that teams might have a collective go, then so much the better.

Rhode evens
Tullamore 10/3
Shamrocks 4/1
Gracefield 5/1
Clara 13/2
Ferbane 16/1
Ballycumber 25/1
Erin Rovers 33/1
Edenderry 50/1
St Brigids 50/1
Tubber 50/1
Shannonbridge 66/1

Before anyone in Shannonbridge, Edenderry or Tubber chooses to conduct (or indeed renew, in the case of the bridge) a fatwa against yours truly, I would just like to point out that I had no input into these odds and these do not reflect the personal views of Lone Shark or any persons affiliated to Lone Shark!!

[Hocker]

Sounds about right to me

Ferbane 16/1
Ballycumber 25/1

Either of these could be a good each way bet on what I've seen of them so far in the league.

[Lone Shark]

I can't imagine that March league form is going to be of much relevance in four or five months time myself.

From a value perspective, Clara at 13/2 should give you a run for your money. Tommo appears to be in as good form as we've seen for a couple of seasons, if he carries that on into the second half of the year they shouldn't be too far away.

[Phoenix]

I've done the obvious and backed Rhode at Evens to a small stake. I reckon they should be heavy odds on if Niall McNamee stays healthy.

[Silken Thomas]

And before anyone asks, no, I don't still work there, but I did ask if it could be done and in fairness to the compiler he took it on and made a decent fist of it. In return for that (and perhaps laying a wee bet to myself! ) I agreed to pitch it on here and then if lads want to get stuck in, or better yet, put it around to their clubmates so that teams might have a collective go, then so much the better.

Rhode evens Evens
Tullamore 10/3 6/1
Shamrocks 4/1 10/3
Gracefield 5/1 10/1
Clara 13/2 4/1
Ferbane 16/1 16/1
Ballycumber 25/1 20/1
Erin Rovers 33/1 40/1
Edenderry 50/1 40/1
St Brigids 50/1 50/1
Tubber 50/1 50/1
Shannonbridge 66/1 66/1

Before anyone in Shannonbridge, Edenderry or Tubber chooses to conduct (or indeed renew, in the case of the bridge) a fatwa against yours truly, I would just like to point out that I had no input into these odds and these do not reflect the personal views of Lone Shark or any persons affiliated to Lone Shark!!

Accuracy in gaelic football odds is hard to obtain but harder still when you haven't a clue
In all sincerity though I think the odds are flawed.
In fairness I don't know how anyone could justify 5/1 for Gracefield.
Likewise Ballycumber are way too long at 25/1.
It will be far from senior championships Erin Rovers will be contesting as well.

[Lone Shark]

Opinions are somewhat like, well, those other things that everyone has one of, but even so I have to say that I don't think this is too far off the mark. I agree that they are very short on Tullamore, but I suppose from the perspective of someone looking at results but not having gone to the games, they've been in two finals in two years and a big town team should have no shortage of strength in depth so I suppose it's understandable.

Funnily enough, I'd go the other way on Gracefield - I reckon that they're a live danger. You have a seriously tough backline with plenty of aggressive hard markers, the best fielding midfielder in the county by a street, several dangerous forwards and a good scatter of young players who are only going to get better. I think that they have a lot of the ingredients and while I wouldn't back them at 5/1, I'd consider them to be well in with the mix.

Ballycumber have proven their worth but they'll really find it tough to get out of that group, while they just haven't found any younger players to help them out in a while - though Conrad Casey looked good last year and Freddie Grennan should be back on board.

As for Erin Rovers, well they mightn't win the county, but they ain't the bottom of the barrel outfit that a few people over the other end of the county make them out to be. They probably won't win but I wouldn't have them at the tail of the betting either.

[Lone Shark]

Revised odds from Ladbrokes below.

Rhode 8/11
Shamrocks 4/1
Clara 11/2
Tullamore 10/1
Gracefield 14/1
Tubber 14/1
Ferbane 16/1
Ballycumber 25/1
Erin Rovers 33/1
St Brigids 33/1
Edenderry 50/1
Shannonbridge 100/1

I still think that Tullamore are way too short while Clara would be the value for me after what I saw.

[kinnittyman]

Any chance of hurling odds LS? Maybe even your own educated opinion?

[Lone Shark]

Any chance of hurling odds LS? Maybe even your own educated opinion?

I think he's leaving that until after this round robin stage - too many games to keep track of in the interim...

As for my own guess, well this is just that, but I'd say

1/3 Birr
4/1 Coolderry
7/1 Kinnitty
16/1 St. Rynaghs
16/1 Kilcormac/Killoughey
40/1 Belmont
50/1 Tullamore
50/1 Seir Kieran
66/1 Shinrone
66/1 Shamrocks
200/1 Lusmagh
200/1 Ballyskenach

Not exactly the most wide open contest you ever saw. In theory K/K or Rynaghs could get their act together, but I wouldn't like to be betting on that myself.

[GreatDayForTheParish]

Any chance of hurling odds LS? Maybe even your own educated opinion?

I think he's leaving that until after this round robin stage - too many games to keep track of in the interim...

As for my own guess, well this is just that, but I'd say

1/3 Birr
4/1 Coolderry
7/1 Kinnitty
16/1 St. Rynaghs
16/1 Kilcormac/Killoughey
40/1 Belmont
50/1 Tullamore
50/1 Seir Kieran
66/1 Shinrone
66/1 Shamrocks
200/1 Lusmagh
200/1 Ballyskenach

Not exactly the most wide open contest you ever saw. In theory K/K or Rynaghs could get their act together, but I wouldn't like to be betting on that myself.

Birr deserve to be favourites owing to the last number of years but personally I would not have them that short as to they missing a few players to travelling. Coolderry, with Ken Hogan at the helm deserve to be very close second favourites and I actually believe they'll do the business this year.

I'd have K/K ahead of St Rynaghs mainly as Rynaghs have been so monumentally useless for the last number of years. For a team without a title since 1993 there is a rot and malaise in that club that transends mere management issues.

[GreatDayForTheParish]

Perhaps these odds should be put in their own thread?

[Plain of the Herbs]

Shure everyone knows Birr is going to win that. What's the point in even quoting odds on anyone else?

Like Istabraq in his prime - "Istabraq is first and the rest are nowhere."

Any chance of hurling odds LS? Maybe even your own educated opinion?

[Hocker]

Jason kelly has upped and left for New York this weekend so make Shannonbridge 200/1.....
Shamrocks @ 4/1 are way too short of odds too...
The rest apart from Tullamore seems about right!

[Bomberman]

Niall Smith and Richie Dalton are gone to the New York for 2 months+ so that rules Gracefield out. Don't think the departure of Richie will have the same impact on Edenderry, as Niall for Gracefield buts its a blow none-the-less.

Anyone know if these guys got transfers or how are they allowed to play football over there.

[Lone Shark]

I would presume the lads are gone under a two month sanction, which would mean that theoretically they could be back for a county final if it took place in late Spetember or after, but realistically without those lads and after the start the two clubs have got (not to mention the fact that it hardly sends out good signals either) then you'd have to assume that they are gone for the year.

Now, in a savage u-turn after I mentioned them as county contenders previously - with a loss to St. Brigids under their belt, several key players and now Niall smith gone as well, does this mean that Gracefield now become relegation contenders? My own view is no, but you couldn't see them beating Clara and Erin Rovers have given them a few tough games in recent years - one bad day there and Gracefield could be in real bother.