Upcoming General Election - Laois/Offaly constituency

[Lone Shark]

Once again I'm digressing from matters GAA, but I was recently asked to do up prices on who would get elected from this constituency, so I said I may as well take the liberty of opening the debate to the floor for anyone who wants to get involved.

My initial read on it is that in Cowen, Moloney and Enright there are three safe seats, with four viable candidates for the last two. Charles Flanagan looks set to cash in on the Fine Gael resurgence, plus i believe he has basically been working to get re-elected from the time Parlon's name was announced five years ago. There is likely to be a national backlash against FF, with the two polls at the weekend suggesting this backlash trend has not come to an end yet. Even so, ourselves and Clare have been the strongest FF constituencies for some time now, so we'll still end up giving FF maybe 10% on top of their national average. (i.e. if they get 36% nationwide, they'll probably get 46% in LS/OY)

Given that, Sean Fleming will probably hang on, assuming the transfers of Cowen's surplus and subsequently Cllr. John Foley (insert howling noise ) stick reasonably along party lines. That said with the Laois side of the ticket looking to have a lot more threats this time, he has a few tense moments ahead.

I'm also going to stick my neck out and predict the electoral demise of Tom Parlon. "Parlon country" has backfired spectacularly, with the decentralisation mess now largely in his lap. Olwyn looks to have impressed in her first term, and she could eat into his heartland even more. If FG has chosen to run with Aird instead of Flanagan they might have split the farming vote even more, but Flanagan does have experience, and one of those funky vans.

My full ist of odds (to win a seat) listed here.

Available in Ladbrokes.

Brian Cowen Fianna Fáil 1/200
Olwyn Enright Fine Gael 1/10
John Moloney Fianna Fáil 1/8
Charles Flanagan Fine Gael 2/5
Seán Fleming Fianna Fáil 4/5
Brian Stanley Sinn Féin 1/1
Tom Parlon Progressive Democrats 1/1
John Foley Fianna Fáil 4/1
Molly Buckley Fine Gael 8/1
Jim O'Brien Labour 10/1
Marie McKay Green 33/1
David Whelan Labour 33/1




For those so inclined, feel free to comment, or even submit to the poll. Or don't - secret ballot is still a right in this country!!

My apologies to the labour candidates and Maria McKay, who I had to amalgamate and eliminate to allow for the maximum of 10 poll options.

[DD]

Foley looks a great bet at 4-1, he's been building up a huge contingent of support in north Offaly over the last 4 or 5 years.
It'll be tight, but the man who sponsors every sporting team or sporting event in the area might just pull off a surprise! And the hair... it would illuminate Leinster house..
In the words of Brian Dobson or some other sad political commentator - "this predidtion comes with a serious health warning"

[Bord na Mona man]

I'm surprised at the short odds for Stanley.
How well do people think he'll poll?

Parlon may have overplayed the stroke puller card with the decentralisation business, but I think he might just scrape back. The fact that it may be a mess nationally mightn't directly affect him.

Can anyone tell me what the two Leix FF TDs are any good for? Could Foley unseat one of these on the strength of Cowen's transfers?

[turk]

i think you can go for Cowen and after that i wouldn't be putting my shirt on any of them. His tranfers will go all over the place too.

[True Red]

and subsequently Cllr. John Foley (insert howling noise )

Does this mean he is a figure of derision in West Offaly eyes?

[Lone Shark]

and subsequently Cllr. John Foley (insert howling noise )

Does this mean he is a figure of derision in West Offaly eyes?

Not at all. You clearly didn't see the episode of The Panel when they discussed John Foley at length. Mainly comparing him to a werewolf.



The way I see Brian Stanley is that he has the advantage of the mayor's chain in Portlaoise, and Laois votes are very scattered. Moloney seems to be reasonably popular, but I think Seán Fleming is suffering due to being so busy with his administrative duties within Fianna Fáil and he seems to be struggling to keep local attention. I don't need to point out that there are a few areas within the constituency where SF should poll well (anywhere with a tradition of flying black flags for hunger strikers for example) and the recent poll puts him on 9%. If he can get his people out - something SF also tend to be good at - and hang in there, he mightn't be as transfer-unfriendly as people expect.

It could be argued that right now he'll get as many transfers as Parlon will.

[peter]

foley is a agood bet at 4/1 odds, well worth putting a few euro on.

[Bord na Mona man]

John Foley seems to me to be a strong and recognisable figure in Offaly. I don't believe he is a make weight 4th person on the Fianna Fail ticket. I have a feeling that Cowen transfers won't be as randomly distributed this time and this will affect the Leix pair.

Ger Killally's best chance to get elected was in 1997 when Ger Connolly had retired. In 2002 that previous failure would have marked him as a beaten docket. However Foley's freshness and good profile building makes him more vote worthy.

Again, I would suggest that both of the Leix TDs have done little to make an Offaly person putting Cowen or Parlon as their 1st preference to vote for them. Apart from wanting to back the most likely ones to get elected.

Brian Stanley only got 2,600 first preferences in 2002. Whereas Charlie Flanagan got 6,500 and still didn't get elected. Also Labour should do better this time out, so I don't think there is a guarantee that Stanley would hoover up Leix/Offaly socialist votes. Neither do I think there has been any significant growth in Republicanism in either county.

Black flags have traditionally not changed into white ballot paper in the constituency. It would take a lot of chavs and disaffected folks around Portlaoise to get Stanley the 5,000 or so 1st preferences he would need to put in a serious challenge.

Whatever about Parlon's mistakes, he polled 2nd highest the last time out and having a junior minister in your constituency is certainly worth a bit. However if the PDs are not looking like being part of the next government, then his value diminishes. Anecdotally I have spoken to a few farmers who would traditonally vote Fine Gael, who gave Parlon a vote the last time and are unlikely to do so this time.

[Lone Shark]

I think with Brian Stanley in fairness there is a world of difference between where Sinn Féin are now and where they were five years ago. 9% nationally, never mind in constituencies like ours was not in their wildest dreams back then. I was amazed they managed to return five deputies last time out, this time I'll be equally amazed if they return less than ten. There will be a big transfer benefit from the recent agreement in the North I would suspect, and if he can get ahead of either Parlon or Fleming on first preferences, they might not catch him as easily as that. He will get 5,000 first preferences, where it'll get interesting is if he gets over 6,000.

The problem for John Foley is that while he is recognisable (and how!! ) he still has to eat into Tullamore a little bit. Even if he does pick up all the Fianna Fáil votes from Daingean out, he'll still fall a fair few short of what's needed, and while Cowen is a good man to send his votes towards other FF guys, I don't know if he'd be let target Foley in particular. It's not like in previous years when FF would have dreamt of four seats in this constituency - they'll be very happy now just to hold three, and the campaign will be managed as such.

Remember Laois do have half the votes after all. Offaly is lucky right now in that our three deputies are all heavyweights in their respective parties, but that won't necessarily carry too much favour with those south of the mountains. They have a sniff of three Laois TD's now for a change, and I suspect they'll get them.

[turk]

I don't think Flanagan will get in.

The voters spoke in 2002 - it's not as if they forgot to vote for him last time.

[True Red]

Did see the show but failed to make the 'howling' connection.Go figure....

Anyways here is my two cents on the upcoming election. Foley is really gung-ho about getting elected however i fear for him.Fianna Fail will be quite happy to maintain the current status quo.Being elected on the first count is a massive ego trip for every Minister.Unless Brian Cowen is willing to sacrifice this and splits his vote between himself and Edenderry's naturalised Kerryman,well then Foley doesnt have a chance.He will more than likely poll up to and over 5000 1st preference votes but after that the transfers will dry up.

The lovely Olwyn will walk in as will Cowen.Fleming and Moloney will get through also with the last seat been a straight up battle between Parlon and a resurgent Flanagan. I think Parlon will suffer this time around especially in North Offaly where he took a good portion of farmer's and FG votes in 2002. Flanagan has a core Fine Gael support waiting to be tapped into and I can see him sneaking into the last seat after a good fight.

[Bord na Mona man]

From '97 to '02 Sinn Fein increased their first preferences from 2.6% to 6.5%.
Which was very substantial. A lot of that was the good will from the 1998 Good Friday agreement.
Remember the IRA were not on cease fire at the time of the 1997 election.

I think they have already reaped any goodwill from peace process developments up North.
Any new developments in the North aren't seen as ground breaking and there also seems to be an element of fatigue from the public too. Bertie shaking hands with Big Ian was more iconic than most of the other developments in the last couple of years.

I don't think these events have the same resonance in the midlands as other areas. Even though they polled 6.5% 5 years ago, the last IMS opinion poll had Sinn Fein at 8%.

However Stanley's profile in Leix means he will probably get personal votes moreso than party votes. I'm not sure how he'll fare with the transfers. However in the fight for the last 2 seats, I think it will be Parlon, Fleming and Flanagan who will be slightly ahead of Stanley.

[Bord na Mona man]

I don't think Flanagan will get in.

The voters spoke in 2002 - it's not as if they forgot to vote for him last time.

I think a lot of the farming vote that went to Parlon will go back to Flanagan.
Parlon is probably going to lose a couple of thousand 1st preferences this time and I suspect is going to waiting for the 4th place Fianna Failer to be elimated before he gets a big boost on transfers.

[Bord na Mona man]

What is latest from the counts?
This is what I got from RTE:

11:37 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open, FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9%

[Bord na Mona man]

Parlon is polling worse that John Bracken in some areas!
However this is in the Birr, Clara and Daingean boxes that have been opened. Bracken won't get many votes outside of his North Offaly hinterland.