General Election 2024 - Offaly Constituency

[SearingDrive]

The centre of Irish politics hasn’t just held, it has gained.

A resounding rejection of extremes on both the right and left.

On a side note, has there ever been a smaller village to have elected 2 TD’s in a 3 seater?

A banner day for Kinnitty with its 903 electors.

The people voted for stability, rejecting extreme left and right. With 86 seats, the FF/ FG parties need another 5 or 6 deputies to form a strong administration.

SF and the left just do not have the numbers , and just have to accept it.

[Anonymous1]

If the big two are on the lookout for a handful of independent TDs to form a government will Nolan put up her hand?

History has shown in scenarios like this TDs like Tony Gregory and Michael Lowry extract a good bounty for their constituency and at the same time even further strengthen their support. On the other hand, some who voted for her would see that as being a sell out.

The easy thing to do from her point of view is probably to stay on the opposition benches, but if she is brave she could be in a position to make a real difference for Offaly.

This article today breaks down all the potential government partners from within the independent ranks, and while the only call that matters is the one that she gets from Micheál Martin/Simon Harris, and not the one from the Irish Times, this is still a bit worrying.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202 ... r-support/

For those who can't see it due to the paywall, the article asks each independent what they would want to go into government. The majority reply, duly listing local projects they would want completed, Carol is one of only two that doesn't respond.

Now I could understand a politician like Brian Stanley, former SF front bench and just out of the party, not supporting a FF/FG government. I could understand, and would support, an outspoken anti-genocide candidate like Catherine Connolly not supporting the government unless they pull the plug on allowing the US military use Shannon airport, which they're not going to do. I could understand the government not asking Paul Gogarty (ex Green) since the Green brand is toxic now and that wouldn't do them any favours,.

Carol Nolan has no such ideological positions, as discussed on this thread. She should be actively jostling to get into position to use her status as an unattached independent in order to leverage her position and make a real impact in Offaly.

But as you say, it's a lot easier to just sit on the sidelines and oppose everything. Time will tell what her plan is, but the early signs aren't good.

Not a hope in high heaven of her ever joining a government of any kind.

It’s far simpler to sit on the sidelines and howl at the moon instead of actually proposing solutions to the country’s problems.

The likes of Boxer Moran who’s just back in the door having lost his seat for going into government has instantly made it known that he’s willing to go back in again and deliver for the people of Westmeath.

That’s what you want and indeed expect from your local TD, unfortunately that’s not what the people of Offaly will get from Nolan.

[Superhans75]

Whatever those elected choose to do this is probably the last election in which people in Ireland will have a say on there own issues
Europe is only going to get bigger and more powerful especially with what's unfolding
In the world of politics..
You might have won the battle but the sobering fact democracy lost the war
The bigger players in modern politics love
Fringe parties hence the support for far right or the far left because they know the can limit them.
I'm afraid it's modern politics.
Have a good week

[Anonymous1]

Whatever those elected choose to do this is probably the last election in which people in Ireland will have a say on there own issues
Europe is only going to get bigger and more powerful especially with what's unfolding
In the world of politics..
You might have won the battle but the sobering fact democracy lost the war
The bigger players in modern politics love
Fringe parties hence the support for far right or the far left because they know the can limit them.
I'm afraid it's modern politics.
Have a good week

Wouldn’t agree with that at all Hans.

With the way things are heading in the likes of France and Germany, the EU is under more threat than it has been since it’s inception and more countries are likely to retreat than integrate.

[frankthetank]

If the big two are on the lookout for a handful of independent TDs to form a government will Nolan put up her hand?

History has shown in scenarios like this TDs like Tony Gregory and Michael Lowry extract a good bounty for their constituency and at the same time even further strengthen their support. On the other hand, some who voted for her would see that as being a sell out.

The easy thing to do from her point of view is probably to stay on the opposition benches, but if she is brave she could be in a position to make a real difference for Offaly.

This article today breaks down all the potential government partners from within the independent ranks, and while the only call that matters is the one that she gets from Micheál Martin/Simon Harris, and not the one from the Irish Times, this is still a bit worrying.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202 ... r-support/

For those who can't see it due to the paywall, the article asks each independent what they would want to go into government. The majority reply, duly listing local projects they would want completed, Carol is one of only two that doesn't respond.

Now I could understand a politician like Brian Stanley, former SF front bench and just out of the party, not supporting a FF/FG government. I could understand, and would support, an outspoken anti-genocide candidate like Catherine Connolly not supporting the government unless they pull the plug on allowing the US military use Shannon airport, which they're not going to do. I could understand the government not asking Paul Gogarty (ex Green) since the Green brand is toxic now and that wouldn't do them any favours,.

Carol Nolan has no such ideological positions, as discussed on this thread. She should be actively jostling to get into position to use her status as an unattached independent in order to leverage her position and make a real impact in Offaly.

But as you say, it's a lot easier to just sit on the sidelines and oppose everything. Time will tell what her plan is, but the early signs aren't good.

Not a hope in high heaven of her ever joining a government of any kind.

It’s far simpler to sit on the sidelines and howl at the moon instead of actually proposing solutions to the country’s problems.

The likes of Boxer Moran who’s just back in the door having lost his seat for going into government has instantly made it known that he’s willing to go back in again and deliver for the people of Westmeath.

That’s what you want and indeed expect from your local TD, unfortunately that’s not what the people of Offaly will get from Nolan.

3 consecutive elections elected to the Dail. Walked in this one with highest vote by a mile.

But ya, the majority of voters in Offaly are wrong and you’re right.

[bracknaghboy]

We need the likes of Carol Nolan in the Dail to remind the FF/FG/SF uniparty folk that there are only 2 genders.....ya know stuff like that. Good on the 8,282 first preference voters at least we know we are not alone if nothing else.....at times it feels that way.

[Lone Shark]

3 consecutive elections elected to the Dail. Walked in this one with highest vote by a mile.

But ya, the majority of voters in Offaly are wrong and you’re right.

That's not the point that was being made, but I will temper my view here, because in fairness to Carol, while most of us would agree what the right thing for Offaly is now and I have been skeptical of the likelihood that Nolan will put that ahead of her own ability to give out about everything untethered, she has not made that decision yet. Anonymous1 is even more certain than I am, but we're probably both being unfair on her, until we see how things play out.

HOWEVER, on your three elections point:

In 2016 she was elected as a Sinn Féin TD, as part of a Sinn Féin wave. Obviously going in with the government parties was not a runner then. Now if I was a Sinn Féin voter who voted for the party as opposed to the candidate, I'd have been a little bit peeved with her decision to leave the party, but that's politics, fair enough. But in terms of trying to punch for Offaly at anything above flyweight, she had no options. Out of 166 TDs, she was in the bottom five or ten in terms of influence, largely (but not entirely) for reasons outside her own control.

In 2020 she was elected as an Independent, and Independents weren't needed to form a government, so she had limited enough options. She chose to join the Rural Independents group, which was a sensible decision as it meant she would be part of a grouping and so would get more speaking time. She's now boxing featherweight.

Now as we've discussed here, she strenuously avoided taking any strong positions on anything aside from her pro-life standpoint, which was a little disappointing because it means that on most of the issues that were big in this election, people didn't know what they were voting for. But, people did vote for her, so she has a mandate. 8,282 gave her a first preference vote, another 1,312 gave her a transfer, that has to be respected.

But here's the thing. I didn't vote in Offaly, because I don't live there any more. And there is no way of proving this scientifically. Nonetheless, I would be VERY confident that if you gave those 9,594 people the following choice:

(A) Do you want Carol Nolan as one of a small group of independent TDs who vote with the government and who have to be - let's call a spade a spade - bought off with benefits for their constituency, or (B) do you want Carol Nolan back on the opposition backbenches, free to say what she likes but with no-one of consequence paying any attention, then I'd be stunned if any less than 80% of those people would choose option A. The families that have lost the steady incomes that were provided by the bogland economy can't eat Dáil speeches and press releases.

She has been elected three times, this is the FIRST time she's had the option of having real influence. Yes, it will come at a cost, and yes she will have to defend things that she doesn't want to defend. But it's a team game. Nobody ever lifted the Seán Robbins or the John Dowling Cup after going solo for the year, these things only happen when you muck in with a group. Nobody loves every single person they share a dressing room with, or agrees with everything that a manager instructs.

And maybe Anonymous1 and I are wrong to presuppose what she'll do. I really hope I am.

[Lone Shark]

We need the likes of Carol Nolan in the Dail to remind the FF/FG/SF uniparty folk that there are only 2 genders.....ya know stuff like that. Good on the 8,282 first preference voters at least we know we are not alone if nothing else.....at times it feels that way.

You need to get off the computer and back out into the real world. I mean that. The only people trying to make an issue out of such nonsense are the far right loons who know that creating culture wars where none exist is the only way they can con gullible people into thinking that they are anything other than grifters. It's a testament to the Irish people and the Irish education system that at a time when all of this stuff is on the rise, the candidates espousing it were absolutely wiped in the election, with all bar a handful of them losing their deposits.

It's an insult to both Carol, and at least 8,200 of the people who voted for her, to suggest that "stuff like that" is anywhere on her, or their, priority list.

Moreover, while she absolutely wouldn't have been my preferred candidate if I voted in Offaly, I still don't think so little of her that I think she will use a single one of her speaking opportunities in the Dáil to try to tell anyone about how many genders there are. If that's how she chooses to use her time, then this county has really shot itself in the foot.

[Faithfully]

We need the likes of Carol Nolan in the Dail to remind the FF/FG/SF uniparty folk that there are only 2 genders.....ya know stuff like that. Good on the 8,282 first preference voters at least we know we are not alone if nothing else.....at times it feels that way.

You need to get off the computer and back out into the real world. I mean that. The only people trying to make an issue out of such nonsense are the far right loons who know that creating culture wars where none exist is the only way they can con gullible people into thinking that they are anything other than grifters. It's a testament to the Irish people and the Irish education system that at a time when all of this stuff is on the rise, the candidates espousing it were absolutely wiped in the election, with all bar a handful of them losing their deposits.

It's an insult to both Carol, and at least 8,200 of the people who voted for her, to suggest that "stuff like that" is anywhere on her, or their, priority list.

Moreover, while she absolutely wouldn't have been my preferred candidate if I voted in Offaly, I still don't think so little of her that I think she will use a single one of her speaking opportunities in the Dáil to try to tell anyone about how many genders there are. If that's how she chooses to use her time, then this county has really shot itself in the foot.

You're 100% correct. People who get wound up by this are trapped in a prison of their own making. Most of us live functional lives and don't spend our time fretting about stuff like that.

Staggering to think that people earnestly vote based on what they deem to be "Anti-woke" issues.

[Anonymous1]

This article today breaks down all the potential government partners from within the independent ranks, and while the only call that matters is the one that she gets from Micheál Martin/Simon Harris, and not the one from the Irish Times, this is still a bit worrying.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202 ... r-support/

For those who can't see it due to the paywall, the article asks each independent what they would want to go into government. The majority reply, duly listing local projects they would want completed, Carol is one of only two that doesn't respond.

Now I could understand a politician like Brian Stanley, former SF front bench and just out of the party, not supporting a FF/FG government. I could understand, and would support, an outspoken anti-genocide candidate like Catherine Connolly not supporting the government unless they pull the plug on allowing the US military use Shannon airport, which they're not going to do. I could understand the government not asking Paul Gogarty (ex Green) since the Green brand is toxic now and that wouldn't do them any favours,.

Carol Nolan has no such ideological positions, as discussed on this thread. She should be actively jostling to get into position to use her status as an unattached independent in order to leverage her position and make a real impact in Offaly.

But as you say, it's a lot easier to just sit on the sidelines and oppose everything. Time will tell what her plan is, but the early signs aren't good.

Not a hope in high heaven of her ever joining a government of any kind.

It’s far simpler to sit on the sidelines and howl at the moon instead of actually proposing solutions to the country’s problems.

The likes of Boxer Moran who’s just back in the door having lost his seat for going into government has instantly made it known that he’s willing to go back in again and deliver for the people of Westmeath.

That’s what you want and indeed expect from your local TD, unfortunately that’s not what the people of Offaly will get from Nolan.

3 consecutive elections elected to the Dail. Walked in this one with highest vote by a mile.

But ya, the majority of voters in Offaly are wrong and you’re right.

I understand you’re not the best with figures but on what planet does 22%=50%+1?

And, if you’re saying the majority view of people in Offaly is always the correct one then you’re clearly conceding that the repeal of the 8th amendment was the correct decision?

[Anonymous1]

We need the likes of Carol Nolan in the Dail to remind the FF/FG/SF uniparty folk that there are only 2 genders.....ya know stuff like that. Good on the 8,282 first preference voters at least we know we are not alone if nothing else.....at times it feels that way.

I hate to break it to you but when voters were asked what issue most affected how they voted last Friday, 0% chose gender issues.

But I’m sure a poll of Gript subscribers would give a different outcome.

[Anonymous1]

We need the likes of Carol Nolan in the Dail to remind the FF/FG/SF uniparty folk that there are only 2 genders.....ya know stuff like that. Good on the 8,282 first preference voters at least we know we are not alone if nothing else.....at times it feels that way.

You need to get off the computer and back out into the real world. I mean that. The only people trying to make an issue out of such nonsense are the far right loons who know that creating culture wars where none exist is the only way they can con gullible people into thinking that they are anything other than grifters. It's a testament to the Irish people and the Irish education system that at a time when all of this stuff is on the rise, the candidates espousing it were absolutely wiped in the election, with all bar a handful of them losing their deposits.

It's an insult to both Carol, and at least 8,200 of the people who voted for her, to suggest that "stuff like that" is anywhere on her, or their, priority list.

Moreover, while she absolutely wouldn't have been my preferred candidate if I voted in Offaly, I still don't think so little of her that I think she will use a single one of her speaking opportunities in the Dáil to try to tell anyone about how many genders there are. If that's how she chooses to use her time, then this county has really shot itself in the foot.

You're 100% correct. People who get wound up by this are trapped in a prison of their own making. Most of us live functional lives and don't spend our time fretting about stuff like that.

Staggering to think that people earnestly vote based on what they deem to be "Anti-woke" issues.

It’s genuinely very very sad that some people fall down that rabbit hole and can’t seem to see what’s happened to them but like LS said, at least 98% of people can still see the wood from the trees and rejected that nonsense.

[first_touch]

There is no chance of Carol Nolan going into government or supporting the next so called government. Equally there is no way that the FF-FG party will ask her.

If you look at her voting record in the last Dail you will see that she voted against legislation that is central to the administration's liberal, 'green' and control agendas. She voted against decriminalising abortion, even up to birth, and voted for administration of pain relief to babies born alive after an abortion. She voted against net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and against many of the restrictive covid 19 measures and vaccine passports as well as hate speech and hate crime legislation.

FF-FG have plenty of independents chomping at the bit who will have no problem supporting the business as usual agenda in return for some benefits, real or perceived, for their own constituencies. There is an important role for opposition deputies who see the bigger picture and call out government policy while supporting their constituents in protecting themselves against the fallout from such policies (eg the proposed Lemanaghan wind farm).

I would like to have seen her raise the issue of the alarming increase in deaths in Offaly (and nationally) since the start of 2021. Hopefully she or someone else in Opposition will start making noise about it as it cannot continue to be ignored and covered up. The silence among politicians and media on the matter is deafening. It's extremely unlikely to be raised by anyone entering talks on the programme for government.

[Lone Shark]

There is no chance of Carol Nolan going into government or supporting the next so called government. Equally there is no way that the FF-FG party will ask her.

There isn't a single independent that was elected that doesn't come with some sort of baggage, in one form or another. If FF/FG look to shore up their majority with independents, then 100% she will be asked. I have no idea what she'll answer, but it's not as if dealing with the Healy Raes, or buying off Michael Lowry or Boxer Moran, will be plain sailing either, and I can promise you that Micheál Martin will work very hard to bring Carol Nolan on board if it saves him having to pick up the phone to Brian Stanley, Catherine Connolly or Charles Ward.

FF-FG have plenty of independents chomping at the bit who will have no problem supporting the business as usual agenda in return for some benefits, real or perceived, for their own constituencies. There is an important role for opposition deputies who see the bigger picture and call out government policy while supporting their constituents in protecting themselves against the fallout from such policies (eg the proposed Lemanaghan wind farm).

This is the nub of the point. If Carol Nolan goes into opposition, she's free to "call out" everything and anything, but no-one will play a blind bit of heed to her. It's easy, it's safe, and it'll have no effect on government policy, and no effect on our lives here in Offaly either.

If Carol Nolan were to go into government, she could - for example - decide that her support for the government is contingent on wind farms only going into areas where there is local support, demonstrated in the form of a plebiscite of all local residents living within a certain radius. If Airtricity/Bord na Móna/Orsted want to get a wind farm across the line, they'll have to do a hell of a lot more than just put in a few cycleways from nowhere to nowhere, or maybe sponsor a few sets of jerseys. They'd have to give the community something real and meaningful instead.

Now that would be politically popular, and I have no doubt that if she wasn't asking for something unreasonable on top of this, it would be granted to her in a heartbeat. Tony McCormack and John Clendennen would love nothing more than to be seen to be behind this too.

The problem (for Carol, I stress) is that if she was to try and achieve something tangible and meaningful like this, she would then lose her freedom to also rail against anything and everything at the same time, and to always take the populist line.

And anyway, you acknowledge there there will be real (as well as perceived, in your view) benefits for the constituents of the independents that support the government. Who WOULDN'T want Offaly to benefit from that?? I mean, I didn't vote for FF/FG myself, but let's not pretend that supporting them is like supporting Netanyahu or Trump. I don't share their priorities, but they're not evil. They've been elected with 86 out of 174 TDs, the public has spoken.

I would like to have seen her raise the issue of the alarming increase in deaths in Offaly (and nationally) since the start of 2021. Hopefully she or someone else in Opposition will start making noise about it as it cannot continue to be ignored and covered up. The silence among politicians and media on the matter is deafening. It's extremely unlikely to be raised by anyone entering talks on the programme for government.

This is normally the kind of thing that would make me roll my eyes and tune out, however you are a longstanding poster on this board, you use a publicly viewable email address with your name in it, an email which is out in the public domain and makes it very easy to know exactly who you are, and so you aren't saying this from behind a veil of anonymity. I respect that, and I will treat this bit as if it's spoken earnestly and honestly, even though there are alarm bells ringing all around it.

These are the international death statistics, and the numbers are verifiable with the data available from the CSO. No red flags here.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metr ... death-rate

Now I assume you're referring to the Eurostat "excess mortality" statistic, which has been raised frequently on Gript, and is the one where Ireland - alongside Germany and the Netherlands - has higher levels of increased mortality rates compared to the benchmark period, which is 2016 to 2019.

For those unaware, source here - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistic ... statistics

Now this stat is a positive number for most countries, due to Covid-related deaths that didn't exist in the benchmark period. It's worth noting here that Covid remains the second highest cause of mortality in Ireland in 2024, behind only heart failure. Though your use of quotation marks when you spoke about Covid earlier in this thread (see below) make me suspicious of your stance here, but anyway.

This became glaringly obvious during the 'covid' drama where all parties and most independents supported crazy lockdown policies, enforced mask wearing

Anyway, moving on, we have low death rates by historic measures, low rates by comparative measures (bottom handful in the EU), and when this "excess mortality" statistic WAS brought up in the Dáil - despite your incorrect assertion of silence from politicians - it was in the form of a parliamentary question from Peadar Tóibín, and was fielded by the then Minister for Health, Stephen Donnelly. The answer in a nutshell was that Ireland was slower to have the same 'ageing population' effect that has afflicted the rest of the Western World, but that there was a noticeable increase in the age profile of our population through the middle part of the last decade, and that's feeding through to (very fractionally) higher death rates now.

Just to use very simple stats to illustrate this, Ireland's overall population increased by 8.1% between 2016 and 2022, according to census data from those two years. Meanwhile, the population of people aged 85 or older increased by 25% in the same period, which is over three times as high an increase. You don't have to be a statistician or a doctor to see that advances in medical technology aren't going to be able to balance out that sort of demographic shift, and of course our 2022 population will have higher death rates.

That's why you don't see it in the mainstream media, outside of head-the-balls like Gript. When you have even a basic grasp on statistics, correlation and cause-and-effect, you can tell that there's nothing to see here. Gript don't care about things like that, because they have their own agenda.

Unless there is different data you're referring to here? Please link to it if so.

[first_touch]

LS, thanks for taking the time to reply to my post. I don't see Carol Nolan's voting record as 'baggage' but was pointing out that her political views are opposed to those of the current (and next) government. For that reason I would see many other Independents who would be higher up the pecking order to be negotiated with in government formation talks.

You do make good points about potential benefits for Offaly if she committed her support to the government. But what if the government decides to liberalise abortion laws even more, introduce more restrictions on freedom of speech, penalise farmers under the guise of meeting 'emissions targets'. Do you seriously expect her to support such measures?

There is nothing wrong with elected politicians opposing government policies if their opposition is well founded and coherent, and particularly if the policies are crazy or downright harmful. Unfortunately there are few politicians who are genuinely critical of the direction the country is headed. This is not healthy in a democracy. Even though the assertion that we live in a democracy is becoming increasingly dubious!

Anyway we will see how things pan out in the next few weeks...

I have counted the number of deaths over the past eight years of people who were resident in Offaly at the time of death or who lived in the county at some time in their lives. Figures are rounded to the nearest ten. Source: rip.ie website (which is recognised by the CSO as giving an accurate measure of deaths in Ireland).

2016. 600

2017. 610

2018. 640

2019. 650

2020. 720

2021. 800

2022. 870

In 2021, there was a remarkable 25% increase in deaths compared to the previous 5-year average. This included the year of the so called pandemic when people were supposed to be dropping like flies from a killer virus. The stats for 2020 prove otherwise (unless all of a sudden people stopped dying from other causes).

In 2022, the escalating trend sadly continued with a 9% increase on the record numbers of the previous year.

This pattern is far from 'very fractional' and cannot be explained by an aging demographic. In fact, there has been a rise in deaths - many of them sudden - among younger people

Last year the death numbers were gladly less than each of the previous two years, though still significantly higher than the 2016-2020 five-year average.

These trends are replicated all over the country. See, for example, the work of Patrick E Walshe. You will find him on Substack.

You state that covid 19 is the second highest cause of death this year. Do you seriously believe that? I don't know where you got that figure but it's a lie, whoever invented it. This is the same nonsense that purported that people passing in 2020 were dying FROM Covid instead of WITH covid. It's abundantly clear to anyone who does even a modicum of independent research or thinking what the actual cause of escalating death rates is. And it's not just deaths, it's illnesses from cancer to conditions like myocarditis.