General Election 2024 - Offaly Constituency

[Bord na Mona man]

From a government POV, the best Independents are ones that when they're bought, they stay bought.
They don't like surprises, like Independents voting against them.
Carol Nolan's defection from Sinn Fein and her stance on other issues may give off a whiff of 'maverick' to the coalition king makers.

The dynamics of the Offaly constituency mitigate against her. Imagine a scenario where all 3 Offaly TDs are wearing government jerseys?
Then Sinn Fein/Aoife Masterson becomes the main opposition voice in Offaly and reap all the benefits that comes with it.
At the next election, Sinn Fein should gobble up the main slice of the anti-government vote.
Carol herself might expect to be the survivor. McCormack and Clendennen would have the bigger fear of being edged out.

On the final count, Clendennen was elected by finishing 116 votes ahead of Masterson. So in a simplistic re-run, it would take just 59 voters to switch sides to flip the result.
At a guess, Clendennen will want to use his background to cultivate a profile as being strong on sports, hospitality and tourism.
Does he really want Carol Nolan taking credit for every box of chalk that goes to a snooker club, or every set of oars that goes to a rowing club?
He'll be lobbying in the background to make sure she is left shouting from the opposition benches.

[Anonymous1]

LS, thanks for taking the time to reply to my post. I don't see Carol Nolan's voting record as 'baggage' but was pointing out that her political views are opposed to those of the current (and next) government. For that reason I would see many other Independents who would be higher up the pecking order to be negotiated with in government formation talks.

You do make good points about potential benefits for Offaly if she committed her support to the government. But what if the government decides to liberalise abortion laws even more, introduce more restrictions on freedom of speech, penalise farmers under the guise of meeting 'emissions targets'. Do you seriously expect her to support such measures?

There is nothing wrong with elected politicians opposing government policies if their opposition is well founded and coherent, and particularly if the policies are crazy or downright harmful. Unfortunately there are few politicians who are genuinely critical of the direction the country is headed. This is not healthy in a democracy. Even though the assertion that we live in a democracy is becoming increasingly dubious!

Anyway we will see how things pan out in the next few weeks...

I have counted the number of deaths over the past eight years of people who were resident in Offaly at the time of death or who lived in the county at some time in their lives. Figures are rounded to the nearest ten. Source: rip.ie website (which is recognised by the CSO as giving an accurate measure of deaths in Ireland).

2016. 600

2017. 610

2018. 640

2019. 650

2020. 720

2021. 800

2022. 870

In 2021, there was a remarkable 25% increase in deaths compared to the previous 5-year average. This included the year of the so called pandemic when people were supposed to be dropping like flies from a killer virus. The stats for 2020 prove otherwise (unless all of a sudden people stopped dying from other causes).

In 2022, the escalating trend sadly continued with a 9% increase on the record numbers of the previous year.

This pattern is far from 'very fractional' and cannot be explained by an aging demographic. In fact, there has been a rise in deaths - many of them sudden - among younger people

Last year the death numbers were gladly less than each of the previous two years, though still significantly higher than the 2016-2020 five-year average.

These trends are replicated all over the country. See, for example, the work of Patrick E Walshe. You will find him on Substack.

You state that covid 19 is the second highest cause of death this year. Do you seriously believe that? I don't know where you got that figure but it's a lie, whoever invented it. This is the same nonsense that purported that people passing in 2020 were dying FROM Covid instead of WITH covid. It's abundantly clear to anyone who does even a modicum of independent research or thinking what the actual cause of escalating death rates is. And it's not just deaths, it's illnesses from cancer to conditions like myocarditis.

Just wait until you hear about this fascinating phenomenon known as an “Ageing population”

[Lone Shark]

You do make good points about potential benefits for Offaly if she committed her support to the government. But what if the government decides to liberalise abortion laws even more, introduce more restrictions on freedom of speech, penalise farmers under the guise of meeting 'emissions targets'. Do you seriously expect her to support such measures?

There is nothing wrong with elected politicians opposing government policies if their opposition is well founded and coherent, and particularly if the policies are crazy or downright harmful. Unfortunately there are few politicians who are genuinely critical of the direction the country is headed. This is not healthy in a democracy. Even though the assertion that we live in a democracy is becoming increasingly dubious!

Of course any politician is entitled to have red lines. But if you have lots of them, you'll never be part of any administration, you'll never have any influence, and your constituents will never benefit from having you in office. Now if you lay that out on the line in advance, and people vote for you anyway (such as with Sinn Féin's abstentionist policy for Westminster) then that's democracy at work. But as we discussed here prior to the election, Carol appears to oppose pretty much everything, so it's very hard to tell which are red lines then.

Can I ask why you put "emissions targets" in single quotation marks, by the way?

And there are plenty of politicians who are very critical of where the country is headed. Sinn Féin captured a lot of that sentiment, the Social Democrats picked up more. There were more extreme view-holders as well, but the only thing is that very few people voted for them, which I would argue is very much democracy functioning as it should.

I have counted the number of deaths over the past eight years of people who were resident in Offaly at the time of death or who lived in the county at some time in their lives. Figures are rounded to the nearest ten. Source: rip.ie website (which is recognised by the CSO as giving an accurate measure of deaths in Ireland).

2016. 600

2017. 610

2018. 640

2019. 650

2020. 720

2021. 800

2022. 870

I'll start this by saying that I have no idea of your statistical methodology, how you ascertained who did or didn't live in Offaly at any time (I lived in both Galway and London, I doubt either would show up on my RIP post!) and what percentage of the population uses/used RIP.ie at any time.

If your numbers are accurate, then what you're saying is that in 2022, when Ireland had a national death rate of 7.0 deaths per 1,000 people, Offaly had a rate of roughly 11.0. That's very much an Offaly issue, and would be a remarkable national story, IF it is in fact the case. However you'll appreciate my skepticism that you have applied study principles that are robust, and would pass academic scrutiny.

See, for example, the work of Patrick E Walshe. You will find him on Substack

I actually looked at this. I was skeptical before I did, and it was even worse than I imagined. I'll be kind and say that the complete absence of any reference to what his qualifications are in the fields of medicine, data science, statistics and analytics, plus some of the extremely dubious characters he interacts with, make it very clear that this is not someone who should be taken seriously.

You state that covid 19 is the second highest cause of death this year. Do you seriously believe that? I don't know where you got that figure but it's a lie, whoever invented it. This is the same nonsense that purported that people passing in 2020 were dying FROM Covid instead of WITH covid. It's abundantly clear to anyone who does even a modicum of independent research or thinking what the actual cause of escalating death rates is. And it's not just deaths, it's illnesses from cancer to conditions like myocarditis

The CSO says that this is the case. They tend to be where I get most of my statistics and data, as do most people who live in the real world.

And when you work in media, as I do, you have to develop an ability to understand the difference between proper studies conducted with full rigour, based on sound mathematics, and those who like to use the phrase "independent research", which usually means that somebody read something somewhere. One thing is for sure - anybody who uses the phrase "independent research" will never produce raw, verifiable data, it's always either a set of numbers that no-one else has seen, secondhand reference to some third party that is no-one in particular, or else some variant on "trust me, bro". I'm sorry, but you're ticking a lot of those boxes here.

[first_touch]

LS, would you just go on to the Rip.ie website and do the calculations yourself if you are not prepared to believe me. I can explain to you how to do it if it's too much of a challenge. It's typical of journalists nowadays to simplify regurgitate official data rather than question it's veracity. In what way is the CSO data 'verifiable'?

By the way I should have put "emissions targets" in double quotation marks!

And for your information Patrick Walshe is a chartered accountant.

[Faithfully]

The people working in the CSO have degrees in applied mathematical sciences and statistics.

I know dozens, if not hundreds, of chartered accountants. I've actually done the exams myself. The fact that you think this guy on his blog is an authority on that basis is genuinely hilarious.

Not everything in life is a big conspiracy.

[first_touch]

The people working in the CSO have degrees in applied mathematical sciences and statistics.

I know dozens, if not hundreds, of chartered accountants. I've actually done the exams myself. The fact that you think this guy on his blog is an authority on that basis is genuinely hilarious.

Not everything in life is a big conspiracy.

I'm saddened that you find the subject of excess deaths 'hilarious'. Who needs two eyes, two ears and a brain when we have "experts" spoonfeeding us information? If you are questioning my reading of the rip.ie data I challenge you to go on the website and check it out for yourself. But then again I guess it's a 'conspiracy' to question anything we are told by Official Ireland these days so why bother!

[Faithfully]

The people working in the CSO have degrees in applied mathematical sciences and statistics.

I know dozens, if not hundreds, of chartered accountants. I've actually done the exams myself. The fact that you think this guy on his blog is an authority on that basis is genuinely hilarious.

Not everything in life is a big conspiracy.

I'm saddened that you find the subject of excess deaths 'hilarious'. Who needs two eyes, two ears and a brain when we have "experts" spoonfeeding us information? If you are questioning my reading of the rip.ie data I challenge you to go on the website and check it out for yourself. But then again I guess it's a 'conspiracy' to question anything we are told by Official Ireland these days so why bother!

Nobody said excess deaths were hilarious. Your deference to a random man on the Internet is, however, astoundingly hilarious.

Your reading comprehension is poor, although given how far down the rabbit hold you are, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

Spend less time on the Internet. Talk to real people. As I said earlier, you are trapped in a prison of your own making. You'll never be happy in life if you're so caught up in the latest conspiracy theory. Take care.

[faithfulfanatic]

Actually terrifying to think a growing % of people are believing in conspiracies such as that. The whole world isn’t out to get you, the Government isn’t just one big conspiracy to control you.

First touch you seem hell bent on believing that excess deaths MUST be from a vaccine and are very quick to discount the role that COVID quite obviously played. And that’s before getting in to the plethora of facts Lone Shark and others have presented to you which you blissfully ignore as they don’t suit the agenda you heard from a random Chartered Accountant online.

[first_touch]

https://youtu.be/jndykWR9O-c?si=kxtFcy_GkJLzeglB

Aside from Dr John Campbell there are numerous other medical professionals who have raised concerns about rising death rates and their possible causes. Among them are Dr Peter McCullough, Dr Tess Lawrie (founding member of the World Council for Health, Dr Aseem Malhotra, Dr Zach Bush, Dr Mike Yeadon, Dr Robert Malone, Dr Pierre Kory, Dr Angus Dalgleish, Prof Luc Montagnier, Dr Steve Kirsch. The list goes on.

They are not some 'random people on the internet'. They are living in the real world, dealing with real patients and raising real concerns.

[biffinbanner]

i see pippa only got her family and close neighbours to vote for her?!? lovely to see.

[Anonymous1]

https://youtu.be/jndykWR9O-c?si=kxtFcy_GkJLzeglB

Aside from Dr John Campbell there are numerous other medical professionals who have raised concerns about rising death rates and their possible causes. Among them are Dr Peter McCullough, Dr Tess Lawrie (founding member of the World Council for Health, Dr Aseem Malhotra, Dr Zach Bush, Dr Mike Yeadon, Dr Robert Malone, Dr Pierre Kory, Dr Angus Dalgleish, Prof Luc Montagnier, Dr Steve Kirsch. The list goes on.

They are not some 'random people on the internet'. They are living in the real world, dealing with real patients and raising real concerns.

Ah… John Campbell who isn’t even a doctor…

I’m genuinely sorry for you first_touch, hopefully you get the help you require.

[first_touch]

Anonymous (a very revealing username!) that message just shows how brainwashed you are. You seem to be stuck in the ridicule mindset, a sure sign of someone who is either incapable of, or resistant to, critical thinking.

[kingscounty]

One wonders will a FF/FG lead government again finish the Children’s hospital within the next 5 year term, or build a bike shed for under €300k, or help the children with scoliosis, reduce the scandalous homeless figures.
I accept no government can solve every issue, but it would have been nice to at least see some sort of a new set up, someone said people voted for stability, is stability viewed that as long as your life is stable that’s what matters.

[Lone Shark]

https://youtu.be/jndykWR9O-c?si=kxtFcy_GkJLzeglB

Aside from Dr John Campbell there are numerous other medical professionals who have raised concerns about rising death rates and their possible causes. Among them are Dr Peter McCullough, Dr Tess Lawrie (founding member of the World Council for Health, Dr Aseem Malhotra, Dr Zach Bush, Dr Mike Yeadon, Dr Robert Malone, Dr Pierre Kory, Dr Angus Dalgleish, Prof Luc Montagnier, Dr Steve Kirsch. The list goes on.

They are not some 'random people on the internet'. They are living in the real world, dealing with real patients and raising real concerns.

First Touch, I've no doubt you are entirely earnest in your beliefs here, so I'm not going to get personal or anything like that - but there are very good reasons why there are established academic standards that have to be adhered to in order for scientific research to be taken seriously. The World Council for Health has no track record, no mandate, no charter, is believed to have only been founded in 2021, there is immense secrecy around who funds it, and most of the individuals you list there who are part of it, have been proven to have made demonstrably false claims, for example the promotion of Ivermectin to treat Covid.

I'm not going to try and convince you any more, and I genuinely wish you well, but I studied statistics in college, I've done some work in data analysis and I read enough academic papers to understand how research is supposed to work. The idea that a website like RIP would give access to real information that the CSO would for some reason want to hide from us, is preposterous for a lot of reasons. But I'm getting a very clear impression that you're just not in a place where you can take that on board.

So I'll wish you well, and bow out of this particular tangent on this thread.

[Lone Shark]

One wonders will a FF/FG lead government again finish the Children’s hospital within the next 5 year term, or build a bike shed for under €300k, or help the children with scoliosis, reduce the scandalous homeless figures.
I accept no government can solve every issue, but it would have been nice to at least see some sort of a new set up, someone said people voted for stability, is stability viewed that as long as your life is stable that’s what matters.

I have to say, I'd be of a similar mindset to this.

The bike shed stuff, while not a good sign, is like the RTE thing, and the children's hospital aspect, where those who are charged with the responsibility of looking after the taxpayer are drunk at the wheel, and so some unscrupulous people will take advantage. But I'll get over that, because I've no doubt that working within the long-established traditions of the civil service isn't easy, and we all make mistakes, just some have more consequences than others.

However the scoliosis issue, and the homelessness issue, for me are very different. This is where it's clear that the government is not trying. You don't have to have a doctorate in economics to know what will happen to the property market when you (1) allow vulture funds in, and (2) you concentrate all your "efforts" on further fuelling demand in the form of help-to-buy supports. If you're taking steps like that, you're not incompetent, it's because you actively want property prices to shoot sky high. And I suppose when you look at the ratio of landlords to renters/non-property owners in the Dáil, and you compare that to the same ratio in general society, should we really be surprised?

And how you could look at the suffering that the children with scoliosis go through and not just decide to write a blank cheque to do whatever needs to be done and figure it out later, is beyond me. Again, the only way you could pursue the policies that have been pursued is if you deliberately close your eyes and put your fingers in your ears, or if you're absolutely heartless.


But yes, there was a majority that voted for "don't rock the boat", and that's the price of democracy. I wish it had gone a different way, but at the same time, I look around and what has happened to countries like the US and the UK and I'm very relieved that we're not gone down that road.