For those who don't mind punting at odds on.

Lone Shark · Post by **Lone Shark** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:23 am

I'm persona non-grata with Bet365, but for those of you who haven't soiled your account by having the temerity to not be a complete mug (

), they have a wager up there at the moment - Galway to beat Laois in a season match bet, bet void if both teams are eliminated at the same stage.

The way I see it Galway will be slight favourites in their QF, against either Cork or a qualifier. Laois will have to win their qualifier game for Galway to even have to do anything, and even then for you to have any chance to lose your money they'll have to beat the eventual Ulster champions as well as Galway lose.

I can't see it. Like all bets, there is risk, but this looks like a 1/5 shot to me, not 8/15.

(Incidentally, if anyone is willing to put the bet on for me.....

)

Lone Shark · Post by **Lone Shark** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:51 pm

Slight complication - it appears it's dead heat rules rather than bets void - which obviously is less favourable because you'll lose money in the event of a draw. I still think it's value though, based on the following probabilities for each team from now on: (obviously if you disagree with this then don't bet!!)

Galway Laois

Lose in Round 4 0 0.15

Lose in QF 0.4 0.61

Lose in Semi 0.4 0.13

Lose in Final 0.13 0.07

Win 0.07 0.04

Based on this, the probability of Laois winning the bet is 14.8%. The probability of a dead heat is 29.6%, and the probability of a Galway win is 55.6.%. So if we take the expected value of a €150 wager....

14.8% multiplied by €0 = €0
29.6% multiplied by €115 = €34.04
55.6% multiplied by €230 = €127.88

Total expected value of the wager = €161.92.

Still value, but not as great as I thought. I'll be betting it anyway, I'll let ye make up ye're own minds.....

turk · Post by **turk** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:21 pm

where did you get these numbers?

Lose in Round 4 0 0.15

Lose in QF 0.4 0.61

Lose in Semi 0.4 0.13

Lose in Final 0.13 0.07

Win 0.07 0.04

Lone Shark · Post by **Lone Shark** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:29 pm

Just my own calculation, based on outright odds and likely games. Obviously if you disagree and you think I've underestimated Laois or overestimated Galway don't bet, or if it's vice versa then bet more!

turk · Post by **turk** » Tue Jul 19, 2005 3:31 pm

In other words, you just made them up, boooo!!

Lone Shark · Post by **Lone Shark** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:09 am

Made them up scientifically of course.....

Hyper · Post by **Hyper** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:04 pm

LS

A bit of word for T5 10pm Romford tonight- Junior Mechanic