GAA bets

[Kennyrodgers]

lads just looking at paddypower website and i was thinking about a short priced accumulator,

Kilkenny @ 4/9 to beat galway in hurling,its in pearse stadium,
Mayo @ 2/5 to best wetmeath in football,its home game for mayo,
Kildare @ 1/2 to beat wexford in football,its home game for kildare,
Cork @ 3/10 to beat fermanagh in football,its home game for cork,
Limerick at 2/5 to beat tipp in football,its in limerick

a 10 euro accum would give you a return of 55.21

in the current economic climate thats nothing to be sneezed at!!

[TheManFromFerbane]

God damn it man did you not look at LS's write up in the Offaly Indo!! Singles all the way!!

[Bord na Mona man]

The league in GAA is always hard to call in betting. Form is never a great guide.
Many teams go on a win-lose-win-lose cycle, rather than win-win-lose-lose.
Very often when a team lose one week they bounce back win the next.
Teams often train close to league matches when they are mid-table and don't need the win badly.

For example in the Westmeath-Mayo game, Westmeath have lost heavily in their first 2 games and I'd say will be bulling to win this.
Granted Mayo are a better team and are at home, but I doubt they will be going at full gallop.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Wasties won this. The same goes for Wexford against Kildare.

[turk]

the problem with an accumulator with lots of short priced teams in it is that one of the odds on teams will always bring it down!
Lone Shark might advise against accumulators - but they're good crack!!

[Lone Shark]

The thing about betting is that it very much can be whatever you want it to be - my column is designed towards those who would be geared towards making a small profit over the course of the year, which is pretty much how I operate - on a bad year I make 1 or 2%, on a good year I make 10% profit based on turnover. If that's your aim, then singles are definitely the way to go, since every time you bet you have to beat the bookies margin.

(Not trying to plug again, but the maths behind it is here - http://betdiary.ie/kevinegan/2009/01/29 ... ngles-bar/)

However, as I said above, different people want different things out of betting. People don't play the lotto because they think the statistics are in their favour, they play becauase they like the fact that they just might get a big win - and that's the way with accumulators. If what you want out of your betting is small stakes and the possibility of a big win, then you could do worse. However you won't find me or any other profit-driven bettor thinking the same way, is all I'm saying.

As regards your games this week, here's my thoughts for the little they are worth...

Kilkenny @ 4/9 to beat galway in hurling,its in pearse stadium, Not on your life. Kilkenny are miles away from championship form, as we saw last week, while Galway are just about unpredictable enough to beat Kilkenny only two weeks after losing to Dublin. Generally speaking, I don't like trusting Galway to win at short prices any more than I like opposing them at short prices. Just too random.

Mayo @ 2/5 to best wetmeath in football,its home game for mayo, As BnaM man said, Westmeath will be a lot better for the three week break and will be driven here, while Mayo have been almost as bad so far. They let a huge lead slip against Donegal and were very poor against Derry too. Again, at 1/2, they're shocking bad value.

Kildare @ 1/2 to beat wexford in football,its home game for kildare, At least here your home team is in form. I think Wexford are going to suffer from a bit of a sophomore slump this year so I wouldn't put you off this one. I wouldn't do it myself mind, but 1/2 is probably not the worst price here.

Cork @ 3/10 to beat fermanagh in football,its home game for cork, This is the worst one of the whole lot to my mind. Cork are playing well and might win this well, but Fermanagh's last match was an away win at Meath, and you're writing them off, implying they have less than a 20% chance of a result here? The wide open spaces of Páirc Uí Chaoimh will suit them and I think they are really under-rated. I'll be backing Fermanagh this week at the ludicrous prices that are out there.

Limerick at 2/5 to beat tipp in football,its in limerick Venue is of little relevance in a local derby like this (would we be any more likely to beat Westmeath in Tullamore as opposed to Mullingar? Feck all) and while Limerick are likely to win, they're not big scorers at all. Having said that I rate this Limerick team and if the Drom-Broadford lads are back in, I'd say they'll win this, not by a wide margin, but they should win.

[bracknaghboy]

Carlow +18 anybody???? Its a lot of points. I dont think there will be 6 goals in it at the final whistle sunday.

[Bord na Mona man]

Unlucky with the accum.
Limerick footballers let it down in the end.

[Kennyrodgers]

Yeah the limerick footballers let me down for a treble and i think they were 5 or 6 points up at one stage,maybe they had a breeze in the 1st half i dont know. Im happy enough tho because i got up a treble,i had kilkenny -3,carlow +18 and offaly + 3,had a good bet on that so im happy!!